SI Betting Guide to NFL Player Props

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With SI Sportsbook opening soon paired with my season-long and weekly NFL stat projections, my natural progression is to find flaws and opportunities in the betting lines to beat the books on futures and player props.

The goal is to set a fair outlook on each team’s offense and each player’s injury risk and upside. By doing over four months of research, I hope to find betting opportunities on player props.

RB Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

There are two excellent betting opportunities posted at the sportsbooks with Davis. My last set of projections have him rushing for 649 yards on 180 carries with six rushing touchdowns. His over/under in rushing yards is 800.5. I don’t view Davis as a season-long answer at running back. Over his six years in the league, he averaged only 3.7 yards per rush while also lacking explosiveness in the passing game (6.4 yards per catch).

The Falcons’ running backs gained 3.7 and 3.8 yards per rush in 2019 (325/1,217/9) and 2020 (378/1,444/12), showcasing the tiny holes created in their offensive line. In addition, Atlanta lost their starting center to free agency in the offseason.

Based on his career path and his new team, Davis would need more than 215 rushes (12.6 per week over 17 games) to reach 801 yards. I don’t expect him to keep the starting job all season based on his age (28) and his journeyman career path. The bets here are on the under on 800.5 yards and under 7.5 rushing touchdowns. Davis has 11 career rushing touchdowns over 62 career games. His success last year with Carolina (165/642/6 – 3.9 yards per rush) was the best of his career. The Falcons have a pair of big backs on their roster, which invites a rotation over 17 games at the goal line.

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